2Q 2018

Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generation

Digital Innovations to Enhance Maintenance and Extend Uptime for Gensets, Microturbines, and Small Turbines

Predictive analytics (PA) is trending across many industries, with professionals from financial services to mobility leveraging data to forecast trends and behavior patterns. Though PA has seen limited success to date among fossil fueled distributed generation (DG) systems, Navigant Research anticipates significant growth as the digitization of energy accelerates and ubiquitous connectivity arrives. In a world of increasingly distributed energy, demand for reliable and inexpensive onsite power may be the biggest driver of all.

This growing focus on reliability, demand for improved lifecycle economics, and a general push toward digitization are driving global demand for PA for fossil fueled DG (PADG). In an industry traditionally focused on mechanical performance, PADG creates a digital twin of the rotating equipment that can be monitored, modeled, and manipulated to enhance system operation. Customers adopt PADG for two primary reasons: increased uptime and optimized maintenance. These goals have solid business cases, especially for larger critical systems running thousands of hours per year. Yet, the path to widespread deployment of PA is also capturing adjacent use cases of digitization, including real-time monitoring, asset and fleet management, and energy use cases like virtual power plant revenue. Customers looking to incorporate such solutions range from industrial facility managers to small utilities like munis and cooperatives.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for PA deployment for diesel and natural gas reciprocating gensets, small turbines below 20 MW, and microturbines. The study examines five segments: commercial and industrial (C&I) standby, C&I prime and continuous, C&I combined heat and power (CHP), utility, and resource extraction. Global market forecasts, broken out by segment and region, extend through 2027. The report also analyzes the key market drivers and barriers and enabling technologies related to PADG and provides an overview of the PADG value chain and business cases.

Pages 33
Tables | Charts | Figures 28

  • Which regions and segments are expected to show the greatest demand for predictive analytics for distributed generation (PADG) in the next 10 years?
  • What are the costs and benefits of PADG?
  • Which companies are the key players in the PADG value chain?
  • What are the adjacent value streams that help prove the PADG business case?
  • What should DG vendors do to succeed in the changing marketplace?

  • Genset vendors
  • Turbine vendors
  • Generator controller vendors
  • Predictive analytics (PA) software vendors
  • Asset performance management (APM) solutions vendors
  • Microgrid developers
  • Utilities and grid operators
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Overview

1.2   Market Forecast Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1   Predictive Analytics and Fossil Fueled Distributed Generation

2.1.1   Other Industries Lead the Way for PA in Distributed Generation

2.2   PA Use Cases Complement Other Digital Use Cases

2.3   Key Drivers and Barriers

2.3.1   Growing Demand for Reliable Onsite Generation

2.3.2   Increasing Digitization and Connectivity of Onsite Generation

2.3.3   Need to Maximize Economic Returns of Onsite Generation to Stay Competitive

2.4   Key Enabling Technologies Are Digital in an Industry of Steel

2.4.1   Augmented Reality and Related Technologies

2.4.2   Connectivity and Remote Systems

2.5   Value Chain Overview: PADG

2.5.1   Generator Companies

2.5.2   Generator Controller Companies

2.5.3   IoT Gateway Vendors

2.5.4   APM Platform Companies

2.5.5   Cloud Services and IoT Platforms

2.5.6   DG Owners and Operators

2.5.7   Value Chain Summary and the High Value of Data

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Forecast Overview

3.2   Deployment Levels and Average Implementation Revenue by Segment

3.2.1   Deployment Levels by Segment

3.2.2   Average Implementation Revenue by Segment

3.3   Global Forecasts by Segment

3.3.1   C&I Standby Segment

3.3.2   C&I Prime and Continuous Segment

3.3.3   C&I CHP Segment

3.3.4   Utility Segment

3.3.5   Resource Extraction Segment

3.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List 

5. Table of Contents 

6. Table of Charts and Figures 

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Annual PADG Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Fraction of Total DG Systems with PA by Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Average Implementation Revenue per PADG System by Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual PADG Units and Implementation Revenue by Region, C&I Standby Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual PADG Units and Implementation Revenue by Region, C&I Prime and Continuous Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual PADG Units and Implementation Revenue by Region, C&I CHP Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual PADG Units and Implementation Revenue by Region, Utility Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual PADG Units and Implementation Revenue by Region, Resource Extraction Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • The Road to Predictive Analytics
  • Knowledge Sharing in Predictive Analytics: Smaller Systems Increasingly Viable
  • Augmented Reality for Engine Maintenance: Woodward’s Smartphone App
  • Value Chain: Predictive Analytics for Fossil Fueled Distributed Generation
  • Value Chain: Company Differentiators and Operational Data Access by Category

  • Summary of Drivers and Barriers for PADG
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Capacity with Predictive Analytics by Region, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Technology, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, C&I Standby Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, C&I Standby Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, C&I Prime and Continuous Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, C&I Prime and Continuous Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, C&I CHP Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, C&I CHP Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, Utility Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, Utility Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Distributed Generator Units with Predictive Analytics by Region, Resource Extraction Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027
  • Annual Implementation Revenue, Predictive Analytics for Distributed Generators by Region, Resource Extraction Segment, World Markets: 2018-2027

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