1Q 2016

The End of the Light Bulb

The end of the light bulb signals a pathway to industry transformation. Technology innovation is redefining the design, applications, and benefits of lighting. This evolution in lighting reflects opportunities and challenges for incumbent market players and new entrants poised to disrupt the market. Since lighting is ubiquitous in homes and workplaces, the end of the light bulb will have a significant impact on both end users and market players. In this white paper, Navigant Research presents a roadmap of long-term lighting market transformation and opportunities for industry disruption.

LEDs are the force majeure in the lighting industry, as they have become the goal for major lighting upgrades in recent years. The capabilities of LEDs, which will likely replace long-lived lighting technologies, set the stage for evolutionary market transformation. Yet, the end of the light bulb is something altogether different. This idea is not about a one-to-one replacement, but about disruptive change. It represents completely new form factors, uses, and benefits—a reimagining of lighting. Once again, LED is leading the way. From LED sheets to organic LED (OLED) panels, several designers and manufacturers are exploring varying degrees of flexibility in design and function and setting the stage for long-term market disruption.

This Navigant Research white paper examines the opportunities and challenges related to the evolution of the lighting industry. The study looks at the key market transformations that are taking place as the lighting industry shifts from traditional lighting sources to integrated lighting. Forecasts of the revenue indicators of market transformation tied to LEDs, lighting controls, lighting as a service, and building energy management systems extend through 2024. The report also examines the evolutionary pace of lighting technology and provides a glimpse of new LED and OLED lighting products that are moving the industry forward on the trajectory toward the end of the light bulb.

Pages 24
Tables | Charts | Figures 7

  • What is the current competitive landscape for integrated LED and organic LED (OLED) lighting?
  • What are the market drivers and barriers for integrated LED and OLED products?
  • How does LED and OLED product development affect the current LED bulb replacement market?
  • Which four technology segments provide insight into the market outlook for the lighting industry?
  • What is the future outlook for growth in lighting and intelligent building solutions?
  • When is the end of the light bulb?
  • What are the key stages in the market transformation leading to the end of the light bulb?  

  • Lighting manufacturers
  • Real estate management
  • Building owners
  • Architectural design companies
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Technology Innovation

1.3  Reimagining of Lighting

2. Market Transformations

2.1  Introduction

2.2  LED Innovation

2.3  Design Flexibility

2.3.1  Acuity Brands, Inc.

2.3.2  Cooledge Lighting

2.3.3  Konica Minolta, Inc.

2.3.4  LG Chem

2.3.5  Philips Lighting

2.4  Breakthrough Applications

2.4.1  Wallpapers

2.4.2  Windows

2.5  Endless Possibilities

3. Evolutionary Pace

3.1  When Is the End of the Light Bulb?

3.2  Near-Term Substitution

3.3  Mid-Term Alternatives

3.4  Long-Term End of the Light Bulb

3.5  Limitations and Potential Roadblocks

4. Revenue Signals

4.1  Market Opportunity

4.1.1  Advanced Lighting Components Revenue

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

5.1  Conclusions

5.2  Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Lighting Innovation and Intelligent Building Revenue, World Markets: 2016-2024
  • Acuity’s TRILIA OLED Panels (L) and CANVIS OLED Wall-Mount Screen (R)
  • Cooledge Lighting’s 7 mm LINE (L) and SQUARE (R)
  • Konica Minolta’s OLED Panel (L) and OLED Tulips (R)
  • LG Chem’s Flexible OLED Panel in Use
  • Hue Lightstrip (L) and OneSpace (R)
  • Luminous Patterns (L) and Lighting Wallpaper (R)

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