The truck and bus markets continue to attract attention from governments that aim to encourage or require a transition from conventional engines powered by gasoline or diesel. While the passenger vehicle market is showing signs of making this transition, the commercial vehicle market has seen slower progress. The benefits of conventional diesel in certain truck and bus applications in terms of cost, reliability, and efficiency, as well as the ready availability of fueling options, set a high bar for alternatives. Fleets must focus on total cost of ownership and reliability and are thus slower to embrace unproven technologies.
Yet, alternative fuels and propulsion technologies continue to make progress in both the truck and bus markets. Electric drive options have shown the most rapid growth in recent years, with the commercial vehicle sector benefiting from the investments made to improve lithium ion battery technology. Growth in hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric drivetrains is expected to chip away at the sales of diesel and gasoline trucks and buses, but at a slow pace. Natural gas will continue to capture market share, but will struggle to inspire significant infrastructure investment. Similarly, autogas (or propane) is likely to be limited to a handful of markets that have embraced this fuel.
This Navigant Research report analyzes the global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market by four major categories: medium duty (MD) trucks, heavy duty (HD) trucks, MD buses, and HD buses. Each of these categories is also broken down into 10 powertrain types: conventional gasoline, gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, conventional diesel, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fuel cells. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, segmented by country and powertrain type, extend through 2035. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for annual sales and population segmented by country, vehicle segment, and powertrain type.