Transportation Outlook: 2025 to 2050

How Connectivity, Autonomous Technology, On-Demand Mobility, and Vehicle Electrification Will Transform Global Passenger Transportation

The global vehicle market is facing a substantial upheaval between now and 2050. Automotive industry technology development is leading to a new generation of vehicles that are capable of taking over much (and ultimately all) of the driving responsibility. At the same time, electric drive technology is becoming more efficient and affordable. Moreover, governments are increasingly pushing for reductions in emissions, and the long-term trend of people moving to live in ever growing urban areas is forcing cities to regulate private car usage. Layered over all of this is the macro trend of 24/7 connectivity.

The development of carsharing and ride-hailing services is at the core of a trend toward mobility on-demand and away from individual vehicle ownership. This is not something that will happen overnight, but it is where the combination of factors described above is driving the growth of the global vehicle market. In the future, the business model of vehicle OEMs delivering products to individual consumers will gradually decline in popularity as mobility services expand.

This Navigant Research white paper takes a high-level look at the long-term evolution of individual transportation based on an assessment of four key trends—vehicle connectivity, vehicle autonomy, on-demand mobility, and vehicle electrification—and factors such as the progress of urbanization. Because the timeframe of 2025-2050 is so far in the future, it is not practical to offer global market forecasts for annual sales. Rather, the paper considers how the transformation of individual mobility will affect the overall vehicle market, as well as vehicle manufacturers and other key stakeholders involved in automotive industry technology development.

Pages 31
Tables | Charts | Figures 4

  • What will the passenger transportation market look like in 2025 and 2050?
  • Which technologies being developed now will drive the future picture of the global vehicle market?
  • How will these technologies interact to further change the transportation landscape?
  • What are the key external forces that will influence the future of transportation?
  • How will companies involved in transportation need to adapt to be successful in the long term?
  • What are the on-demand mobility and automotive industry topics that city planners should be studying now?

  • Vehicle manufacturers and automotive suppliers
  • Fleet managers
  • Electric vehicle (EV) supply equipment providers and manufacturers
  • Wireless communications companies
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Utility companies
  • Local and national government agencies
  • Investor community

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  A Picture of 2025

1.3  Outlook to 2050

2. A Picture of 2025

2.1  The End of the Beginning

2.2  Connectivity Is a Key Building Block

2.3  Autonomous Vehicles Will Be Widely Available

2.4  On-Demand Mobility in Cities Will Lead to Change

2.5  Electric Drive Competes Head On

3. Exploring the Potential: 2025-2050

3.1  The Beginning of the Next Transportation Epoch

3.2  Shifting Priorities in Transportation Pose a Threat to Automakers

3.3  Connectivity Provides New Revenue Opportunities

3.4  More Connectivity Brings More Risk

3.5  Self-Driving Vehicles Transform City Centers

3.6  Consequences of Automated Driving

3.7  On-Demand Mobility Is the Norm

3.8  EVs Will See Global Growth

3.9  Conclusions about Transportation Markets in 2050 and Beyond

3.9.1     Connectivity Is Vital for MaaS

3.9.2     Vehicle Makeover

3.9.3     PEVs Still Share the Road

3.9.4     The Decline of the Personal Vehicle

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

  • Transportation Landscape: 2025-2050
  • Transportation Landscape: 2025
  • Transportation Landscape: 2050

  • Vehicle Automation Level Definitions

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