Market Data: Global Distributed Solar PV

Business Models, Regulations, Installed Capacity, System Prices,
and Revenue for Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV

The global electric power industry is evolving from a financial and engineering model that relies on large centralized power plants owned by utilities to one that is more diverse—both in sources of generation and ownership of the generation assets. This transformation will continue to have a significant impact on the solar PV industry worldwide. Key emerging trends that will shape the trajectory of the global distributed solar PV (DSPV) market in particular include price drops, changes in financial incentives, and emerging business models.

Although DSPV still represents just a small portion of overall electricity generation, the adoption of solar PV around the world will increase rapidly during the next 10 years. DSPV will lead the transition to a more decentralized power system that enables opportunities for other distributed generation technologies as well. In terms of growth opportunities, China and the United States are expected to remain key DSPV markets even though a geographic shift to other countries with high irradiation is underway. India is expected to become a major DSPV market in the next few years. Meanwhile, after years of anticipation, DSPV markets in Latin America and the Middle East are beginning to emerge. According to Navigant Research, global DSPV installed capacity is expected to reach 429.1 GW by 2026.

This Navigant Research report provides a forecast of installed capacity, system prices, and revenue for the global solar PV market (distributed and non-distributed), with a focus on DSPV. The study also provides an analysis of the key market trends and regulatory mandates affecting the solar PV industry, as well as the emerging business models. Global solar PV market forecasts, broken out by region and segment (residential, commercial and industrial, and utility-scale), extend through 2026.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How much solar PV capacity will be installed worldwide from 2017 to 2026?
  • What percentage of solar PV installed in each country will be distributed versus non-distributed?
  • What is the forecast for global distributed solar PV (DSPV) capacity and revenue through 2026?
  • What are the projected region-specific installed DSPV system prices?
  • Which developing countries are expected to meet their ambitious solar PV targets?
  • Which developed markets offer the best opportunities to grow?
Who needs this report?
  • Solar developers and installers
  • Renewables integration hardware and software providers
  • Solar loan providers
  • Commercial power users
  • Government agencies
  • Non-governmental organizations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Key Trends in the DSPV Market

1.3   DSPV Forecast

2. Market Issues

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Grid Parity

2.3    Emerging Business Models

2.3.1   Aggregation

2.3.2   Self-Consumption and Energy Storage

2.3.3   Green Bonds

2.4    Legislative/Regulatory Mandates

2.4.1   Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade Wars

2.4.2   FITs

2.4.2.1    North America

2.4.2.2    Europe

2.4.2.3    Asia Pacific

2.4.3   Net Metering Policies

2.4.4   Renewable Energy Certificates

2.4.5   US Investment Tax Credit

3. Market Forecasts

3.1    Introduction

3.1.1   Segmentation

3.2    Global Solar PV Forecasts

3.2.1   North America

3.2.2   Europe

3.2.3   Asia Pacific

3.2.4   Rest of World

3.2.4.1   Latin America

3.2.4.2    Middle East

3.2.4.3   Africa

3.3    Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Distributed Solar PV Installed System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014, 2016
  • Residential vs. Commercial Solar PV Installation Costs, United States: 2016
  • Estimated Levelized Cost of Energy and Different System Costs and Irradiance Levels (Pre-Tax)
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Type of Installation, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United States: 2017-2026
  • Cumulative Solar PV Deployment Market Share by State, United States: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Select Country, Europe: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, China: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Select Country, Asia Pacific: 2017-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa: 2017-2026

List of Tables

  • ITC Phaseout Timetable
  • Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average) by Component, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Average Solar PV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by System Size and Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Estimated Levelized Cost of Energy and Different System Costs and Irradiance Levels (Pre-Tax)
  • Countries at Grid Parity, World Markets: 2016
  • Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs, United States, Japan, Australia, and Germany: 2014, 2016
  • Residential vs. Commercial Solar PV Installation Costs, United States: 2016
  • Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country and Segment, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Solar PV Revenue by Country, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Percentage of Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Percentage of Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2011-2026
  • Annual Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV, Percentage of Global Installations, and Revenue, Rest of World: 2011-2026
  • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and Segment, United States: 2000-2026

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