Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles

Global Forecasts of Commercial Trucks and Buses by Region and Powertrain: 2017-2035

The truck and bus markets continue to attract attention from governments that aim to encourage or require a transition from conventional engines powered by gasoline or diesel. While the passenger vehicle market is showing signs of making this transition, the commercial vehicle market has seen slower progress. The benefits of conventional diesel in certain truck and bus applications in terms of cost, reliability, and efficiency, as well as the ready availability of fueling options, set a high bar for alternatives. Fleets must focus on total cost of ownership and reliability and are thus slower to embrace unproven technologies.

Yet, alternative fuels and propulsion technologies continue to make progress in both the truck and bus markets. Electric drive options have shown the most rapid growth in recent years, with the commercial vehicle sector benefiting from the investments made to improve lithium ion battery technology. Growth in hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric drivetrains is expected to chip away at the sales of diesel and gasoline trucks and buses, but at a slow pace. Natural gas will continue to capture market share, but will struggle to inspire significant infrastructure investment. Similarly, autogas (or propane) is likely to be limited to a handful of markets that have embraced this fuel.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) market by four major categories: medium duty (MD) trucks, heavy duty (HD) trucks, MD buses, and HD buses. Each of these categories is also broken down into 10 powertrain types: conventional gasoline, gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, conventional diesel, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fuel cells. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population, segmented by country and powertrain type, extend through 2035. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for annual sales and population segmented by country, vehicle segment, and powertrain type.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How quickly will the commercial vehicle market grow in terms of sales and vehicle populations?
  • How large are the truck and bus markets in the major world regions and key countries?
  • How big is the potential market for electric, hybrid, fuel cell, natural gas, and propane in trucks and buses?
  • How much market share will alternative fuels and powertrains take from diesel or gasoline?
  • Which alternative fuels or powertrains will have the most success in the medium and heavy duty truck and bus markets?
  • What are the main drivers for alternative fuels and powertrains in the commercial vehicle markets?
  • Which regions will have strong demand for battery electric and hybrid electric systems for trucks or buses?
Who needs this report?
  • Truck and bus manufacturers
  • Battery and electric drive suppliers
  • Utilities and energy companies
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Fleet managers
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Market Overview

1.2   Scope and Segmentation

1.3   Market Forecast

2. Data Assumptions and Forecast Methodology

2.1   Forecast Philosophy

3. Market Drivers

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Fuel Cost and Availability

3.3   Technology Cost

3.4   Government Policies

3.5   Fleet Demands

4. Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Data Selection Options

4.3   Global Forecast by Vehicle Category

4.4   Breakdown by Powertrain

4.5   Regional Breakdown

4.5.1   North America

4.5.2   Western Europe

4.5.3   Asia Pacific

4.5.4   Rest of World

4.6   Vehicle Population by Powertrain

4.7   Conclusions

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual MHDV Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Vehicle Category, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Category Definitions
  • MHDV Population Penetration by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Vehicle Weight by Category Definitions in Key Countries/Regions
  • Fuel and Powertrain Category Definitions
  • List of Countries and Regions Covered in This Report
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MHDV Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Vehicle Category, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Sales by Country Pivot Table
  • Sales by Powertrain Pivot Table
  • Population by Country Pivot Table
  • Population by Powertrain Pivot Table
  • Annual MHDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MHDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual MD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual HD Truck Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • MD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • HD Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • HD Truck Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • MHDV Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2035

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