U.S. Distributed Renewables Deployment Forecast

Solar PV, Distributed Wind, and Biogas to Electricity Capacity
and Revenue Forecasts: 2016-2025

The deployment of distributed renewables in the United States has accelerated in the last decade due to improvements in regulatory support policies and cost reductions in the related technologies. Distributed renewables technologies, including solar PV, distributed wind, and biogas, have unique characteristics that can act as both generation and/or load control on the grid. Yet, each technology represents a dynamic resource that is challenging the prevailing business models and standard operating procedures in the industry.

Despite the collapse of installed costs, the deployment of distributed renewables in the United States is still affected by federal, state, and local policies. Policies like tax credits that help reduce the upfront cost of the investment and renewables mandates that increase the value of the electricity produced by renewable sources will likely be phased out. Other policies like net metering that enable end users to send electricity back to the grid and receive a credit on their electric bill may be altered to ensure that they reflect the true value of distributed renewables. According to Navigant Research, the United States is expected to deploy 77.3 GW of distributed renewables between 2016 and 2025, with the majority of the capacity driven by solar installations.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the U.S. market for distributed renewables, with a focus on solar PV, distributed wind, and biogas in the top 10 markets. The study examines the market issues, including policy and technology trends, related to distributed renewables in the United States. Forecasts by U.S. state for the three technologies and installation types for solar PV (residential, commercial, and utility) extend through 2025. Data on installers, financing types, and module manufacturers is provided for the distributed solar market in California. The report also examines the key inflection points, as well as the cost trends, business models, and implications for grid integration, related to distributed renewables in the United States.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How much solar PV capacity will be installed in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • How much distributed wind capacity will be installed in the in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • How much biogas to electricity capacity will be installed in the United States from 2016 to 2025?
  • What are the drivers behind distributed renewables deployments in the United States?
  • What are the top 10 markets for distributed renewables in the United States?
  • Who are the top 10 distributed renewables installers and manufacturers in California?
Who needs this report?
  • Solar PV manufacturers and equipment providers
  • Distributed wind turbine manufacturers
  • Biogas plant companies and suppliers
  • Electric utilities
  • Distributed renewables project developers
  • U.S. state regulatory agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Overview

1.2  Market Trends

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions

2.1  Background

2.2  Segmentation

2.3  Methodology

2.4  Policy Assumptions

2.4.1     Federal Tax Credits

2.4.2     Renewable Portfolio Standards

2.4.3     Net Metering

2.5  Technology Trends

2.5.1     Distributed Solar PV

2.5.2     Distributed Wind

2.5.3     Biogas to Electricity Systems

2.6  Key Inflection Points

2.6.1     ITC Steps Down

2.6.2     Structural Changes to Net Metering

2.6.3     Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity

2.6.4     Low-Cost NG

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  Overview

3.2  Forecast Assumptions

3.3  Forecast by Technology

3.4  Forecasts by U.S. State

3.4.1     California

3.4.2     Massachusetts

3.4.3     Arizona

3.4.4     New Jersey

3.4.5     New York

3.4.6     Texas

3.4.7     North Carolina

3.4.8     Maryland

3.4.9     Colorado

3.4.10  Hawaii

3.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List

5. Table of Contents

6. Table of Charts and Figures

7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Distributed Renewables Installed Price by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments by Installation Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Revenue by Installation Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments Market Share by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, California: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by County, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by Installer, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments Market Share by Module Manufacturer, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Massachusetts: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Arizona: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, New Jersey: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, New York: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Texas: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, North Carolina: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Maryland: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Colorado: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, Hawaii: 2016-2025
  • States with Net Metering Policies in Place, United States: 2016

List of Tables

  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by State and Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Deployments by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Renewables Revenue by State and Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Renewables Revenue by Technology, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Solar Deployments by State and Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Deployments by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Solar PV Installed Price (Non-Weighted) by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Solar Revenue by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Solar Revenue by Type of Installation, United States: 2016-2025
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by County and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Installer and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Financing Method and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Distributed Solar Installed Capacity Market Share by Module Manufacturer and Type of Installation, California: 2015
  • Annual Distributed Solar Deployments by County, California: 1996-2015
  • Annual Distributed Wind Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Wind Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Distributed Wind Installed Capacity Cost (Non-Weighted), United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Wind Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Wind Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Biogas Electricity Deployments by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Biogas Electricity Deployments, United States: 2016-2025
  • Average Biogas Electricity Installed Price (Non-Weighted), United States: 2016-2025
  • Annual Distributed Biogas Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • Cumulative Distributed Biogas Electricity Revenue by State, United States: 2016-2025

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