Navigant Research Blog

Cities Looking to Automated Vehicles to Solve Congestion and Emissions Challenges

— November 21, 2017

Around the world, major cities have been setting targets to combat the negative effects of local transport on public health, local pollution, noise levels, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Cities are looking increasingly at the potential of automated vehicles (AVs) to help solve these problems through improved traffic flow, the near elimination of collisions, increased productivity, and reduced pollution and GHG emissions.

 Moving toward Full Automation

The concept of automated or self-driving cars has shifted from the realm of science fiction into reality, as showcased by some of the latest developments in cities around the world:

 Key Challenges Remain

Partial automation is becoming commonplace in all road vehicle classes. Full driving automation is starting to be piloted in numerous cities globally with regular commercial deployments expected in the next 2 to 3 years. Before AVs can become ubiquitous in city streets, new infrastructure investments, communication network upgrades, the need for fleets to operate in varied conditions, and concerns about cybersecurity need to be addressed. Cities also need to develop frameworks to integrate and coordinate AV mobility services with existing transit services to optimize the use of road infrastructure and avoid increased congestion. Although the AV was not at fault for the accident, the recent Las Vegas automated shuttle collision shows why vehicle-to-vehicle communications will also be crucial to the success of AVs.

If AVs are managed properly, highly integrated with public transport, and coordinated as part of a multimodal transportation ecosystem, the shift to self-driving vehicles could lead to reduced traffic congestion in cities, lowered demand for parking spaces, and highly beneficial energy and environmental effects. For more information on the potential effects of AVs in cities, see Navigant Research’s recent white paper on Redefining Mobility Services in Cities.

 

Organizations Work to Combat Security and Interoperability Concerns Surrounding IoT

— November 21, 2017

According to Navigant Research’s new IoT for Lighting report, global market revenue for Internet of Things (IoT) lighting is expected to grow from $651.1 million in 2017 to $4.5 billion in 2026. With the growing number of connected devices and plethora of continual new data generation, data security is a top concern. It is seen as a barrier to adoption for IoT lighting and other IoT technologies within the commercial building space. However, despite the challenges surrounding security, there are organizations that are working to improve security and address other key concerns, such as interoperability.

Addressing Security Concerns

A non-profit, the IoT Security Foundation (IoTSF) aims to make it secure to connect the growing number of connected devices so the benefits of IoT can be realized. In September 2017, IoTSF announced a Smart Buildings Working Group. The key function of the group will be to establish comprehensive guidelines to help each supply chain participant specify, procure, install, integrate, operate, and maintain IoT security in buildings. Intelligent building equipment and controls such as lighting, HVAC, fire, building security, and audiovisual will be included.

The Smart Buildings Working Group, though in its infancy, has already received positive feedback and responses to partnership requests from technology firms. Lighting vendors are starting to express interest, as well. The growing list of partners and participants includes Oracle, Honeywell, and global engineering firm Norman Disney & Young.

Fighting Interoperability

Many IoT lighting systems and lighting control systems are proprietary or modified versions of standards, such as ZigBee. Some customers prefer proprietary systems, as this can simplify discussion over a responsible party for any possible system malfunctions. However, for many, this leads to confusion around which systems to purchase and to fear that components or an entire system might become obsolete. Additionally, this limits coordinated controls within a smart building and can limit the idea of holistic operations within a building.

There are groups, such as the IoT Ready Alliance and the DesignLights Consortium (DLC), working to address interoperability for IoT lighting and other IoT devices. The vision of the IoT Ready Alliance is interoperability and future-proofing of lighting products and services. By helping to expand the number of products that are IoT ready, consumers are not required to make the decision right away. This essentially helps in future-proofing lighting in a time where continued technology advancements can make the decision to upgrade to an advanced lighting system difficult.

The DLC is also helping to drive the widespread adoption networked lighting controls through its Networked Lighting Controls Specification program by providing tools and resources for utilities, energy efficiency programs, and the lighting industry.

Marching Forward

While there are organizations to address these barriers to widespread adoption, the fight to combat security and interoperability concerns within the commercial lighting market and the broader IoT space has just begun. Organizations such as IoTSF, DLC, and IoT Ready Alliance, while making progress, cannot combat these issues alone.

Industry players from lighting manufacturers to startups to tech firms will need to provide support and partnerships for these organizations in order to achieve an optimal outcome. Although initial feedback to these organizations and their work is reassuring and a step in the right direction, time will determine the full support and true success of these programs.

 

Digital Assistants Are a Stepping Stone for Artificial Intelligence in the Home

— November 21, 2017

Artificial intelligence (AI) is gaining hype and capturing headlines about its futuristic possibilities. Popular media, like Blade Runner 2049, depicts AI as a technology powering human-like robots with capabilities for taking over the world. In reality, AI is here, and it is already used in everyday lives. Today, AI is enabling ridesharing applications like Lyft and Uber, autopilot in commercial flights, mobile check deposits, online shopping, and more. The technology is making significant progress across a variety of markets and is spreading to the smart home.

The home is abundant with opportunities to automate tasks and create more personal experiences with technology. AI can be used to enhance solutions that help consumers better understand and manage energy consumption and keep homes safer and more secure. Also, it creates more intelligent and intuitive home automation by studying patterns of human behavior to operate the home more efficiently.

The Digital Assistant

One obvious way in which AI is spreading through the home is digital assistants. Digital assistants, or virtual assistants, are the human-like user interface embodying AI software and cloud services. They are fundamentally changing the way users interact with technology by creating an easy-to-use, hands-free, and conversational experience via voice activation. They also represent a platform that converges devices, data, services, computing power, and the internet to better understand and anticipate consumer needs. While the novelty of using digital assistants is driving adoption and market growth (try playing Jeopardy with Alexa), this technology has powerful implications. Many companies recognize this potential, and large tech incumbents like Amazon, Google, Apple, Samsung, and Microsoft are quickly and heavily investing in AI and digital assistants for the home.

Though digital assistants promise market disruption and a fundamental shift in the use of technology, it is important to stay realistic about AI in the home. Some would argue that traditionally defined AI does not even exist in the home—they would argue it’s all just analytics and algorithms. Others would argue that this is the reality of AI—it isn’t glamorous, it’s about automating tasks and identifying behavioral trends to make our lives more comfortable, convenient, and efficient. How this technology will play out—whether it will be a benevolent and revolutionary technology or whether it will become an existential threat to human existence—remains to be seen. For now, AI is having an impact in the home in the form of digital assistants. Check out Navigant Research’s Digital Assistants and AI in the Home report for more information.

 

Cities: The Focal Point of Climate Action

— November 17, 2017

This blog post was written by Richard Boehnke.

Cities are a focal point of climate action, both individually and as signatories to large networks dedicated to climate mitigation (e.g., Covenant of Mayors and C40). However, efforts to pledge support, sign an agreement, and publish a local climate strategy with an emissions target do not equate to implementing meaningful climate action. Little data is available to support whether cities are on track to achieving targets or if their targets can be met. For example, with the Netherlands reporting only a 3.8% emissions reduction between 2010 and 2015, municipal governments will be required to take the lead in climate action. Yet, with limited budget and staff working on mitigation, most municipalities are also falling behind on individual climate targets. Ecofys, a Navigant company, investigated which existing best practices could be used by local governments to work towards achieving climate goals.

Opportunities for Local Governments: Best Practices in Climate Action

The study examined 26 best practices from 13 Dutch municipalities. These ranged from community energy ambassadors in Almere, to an energy coalition in Den Bosch, to the investment scheme that led to the construction of large wind turbines in Nijmegen. Civil servants stated the goal of these practices was to act as facilitator, engaging the public and businesses to mediate regulatory and institutional processes. However, more needs to be done to meet ambitious targets.

The First Missing Piece: Collaboration

Listening to other departments’ targets and collaborating on projects is crucial to developing citywide climate solutions. Climate projects typically involve several aspects of city development and are frequently cut due to varying priorities when considering the expense of a specific climate measure. It is possible to use mitigation actions to achieve municipal targets because of the broad impact these actions can have beyond reducing CO2 emissions, like air quality improvement or job creation. Achieving climate targets can be considered a co-benefit when conducting successful and profitable municipal projects.

The Second Missing Piece: Monitoring

Databases like the Klimaatmonitor—which contains key energy and climate statistics for Dutch municipalities—are extremely useful for overviews of municipal progress and national trends. However, there are no clear data or monitoring schemes of local climate projects. This gap limits decision makers because the effects of any given project are not known. Without this data, pilots are less likely to be scaled, best practices are difficult to develop and replicate, and real-time progress cannot be assessed.

A Way Forward

Clear, actionable climate plans are necessary to realize the potential of local climate action. Local governments lack public short- and long-term plans in areas where emissions will be locked in (e.g., district vs. electric heating, hydrogen vs. e-transport, in-depth vs. cursory building renovations). There are several tradeoffs when considering each of these paths, but inaction will only delay the inevitable choice and reduce related short- and mid-term benefits. Robust climate plans require:

  • Emissions targets
  • Emissions baseline
  • Budget
  • Stakeholders
  • Clear measures
  • An implementation plan and timeline
  • A monitoring scheme

If full-bodied plans are implemented, municipalities can share each step of their projects and monitor progress towards achieving local climate goals. With public long-term planning, citizens, cooperatives, and businesses can participate, invest in, and adapt to the municipal energy transition. Municipalities will have to invest a lot more than the currently allocated budgets and manpower to become climate neutral in 20-30 years.

Research conducted for the municipality of Utrecht (350,000 inhabitants) shows that if all measures were realized within the city limits, becoming climate neutral would require investments of about €9.5 billion. However, if the municipality agreed to take part of its investments outside of Utrecht (e.g., funding offshore wind in the North Sea), total investments could be reduced to roughly €4 billion. Ecofys, a Navigant company, proposes that national and municipal governments should agree on a fair effort sharing to reduce overall societal costs.

For more information, please get in touch with our team.

 

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